Playing the earnings game

During earnings season, I often have to ask myself whether I want to play the earnings game. There are times whereby earnings is good but the stock price crashed although it could also go up. Basically there is a 50% chance of either one happening and sometimes it can completely reverse the prevailing trend as well as the overall market sentiment to be one of the few bright sparks in the market.

There are times whereby I refrained myself and times where I go in with guns blazing. So far, I've had it both ways which means I'm neither a genius nor an idiot thus earnings day is an important consideration for me. Especially if today's the day to go in and tomorrow is earnings day. If it's a week later, it could be a maybe and if it's a month away, that's pretty far away so it's a go for me.

There was once a stock that I own which reported its earnings and somehow Google Finance didn't pick up the date so it was my mistake as I should have checked it through the exchange. That day was beautiful as I saw the stock blast through its downtrend and was up 7% by the time market closed. It was one of the few positive stocks that day in the entire market. 

For me, if earnings was good and yet the stock price crashed, I could either cut loss, hold on or add on regardless of whether there are dividends that would be paid. Of course, dividends would be a bonus but not the sole deciding factor. That would be an investment if the company fundamentals has passed my litmus test. I could also go on the offensive and short it so there are many choices I can make. 

Nowadays since I don't hold new stocks for investments, I become more selective and there are days I just paper trade and then check back to see whether I've become more accurate in my readings. Naturally, nothing can beat the sheer force of the market so at times I give it a couple of days to let it sit, much like wine before I can smell the bouquet. 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

A tale of two stocks

Once in a while say a year or two later, I will be very kaypoh and look at the past stocks that I’ve analysed before just to see how it’s doing. I may or may not have invested or traded in that stock but it just takes one second to click on the link and see the chart. I would have remembered it’s previous price so the current chart can either make me have 3 reactions. Oh chey, it’s the same or not much difference, Wow look at it go to heaven or Wah Kao this one die liao.  For the first reaction I usually just leave the stock be but for the other two reactions, I will go and take a look at my past analysis to see whether I’ve “predicted” it’s future. Two stocks caught my eye as one went to the sky and one straight to hell. Both were similar in the sense that they faced crises except that one managed to turnaround whereas the one in the depths of hell have a long way to go. Let’s start with the one in hell which is  Capita  which I did a sort of write up on in 2014. I last saw it
Read more

FIRE

Recently there has been a lot of talk about financial independence and retiring early. FIRE for short it seems. I know plenty of people around me who have achieved FI but are not RE simply because they are not geared that way. They want to be mentally stimulated at their jobs or businesses and they continue everyday despite being able to tell their bosses to FO.  My ex boss who was retrenched from the bank when he was in his 40s could have RE years ago. He had a world class education from USA, worked in a big shot investment bank in USA and then came back to SG as his parents are here. His house was fully paid up, he had multiple investment properties but he was a man I respected for many reasons. He was highly intelligent but never stingy in mentoring me although he wasn't my mentor as my senior was supposed to do that instead. He was very frugal as he drives a second hand van, dresses simply and his wallet was falling apart but yet he doesn't change it at all. Yet, h
Read more

Losing 10% of your net worth

No, that person wasn't me! ACCICB told me he heard of somebody who lost that much last year in the stock market. Regardless of how much the person's net worth was, 10% is a huge amount to lose in a year! I was asked to guess the dollar value of the person's loss and even after 10 guesses, I still didn't hit the magic number!  Let's just say that it is impossible for most people to have that kind of money in a lifetime and the amount lost can feed 10 families comfortably throughout their existence on earth. That conversation triggered off this post as most people have probably already calculated their realised /& unrealised portfolio loss/ net worth loss now that we are in the early days of 2016. Since investing typically means waiting for the value of a stock to appreciate, in such economic doldrums, valuations get slashed and usually so does dividends. I can't help but wonder with the changing nature of the world, valuations would be calculated dif
Read more