tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-74742869184793099822024-03-13T20:33:05.150+08:00Athena TraderThree good trades a day keeps the banker awayUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger84125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7474286918479309982.post-19223562482552262652018-04-15T10:34:00.004+08:002018-04-15T10:34:53.451+08:00A tale of two stocks<div style="text-align: justify;">
Once in a while say a year or two later, I will be very kaypoh and look at the past stocks that I’ve analysed before just to see how it’s doing. I may or may not have invested or traded in that stock but it just takes one second to click on the link and see the chart. I would have remembered it’s previous price so the current chart can either make me have 3 reactions. Oh chey, it’s the same or not much difference, Wow look at it go to heaven or Wah Kao this one die liao. </div>
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For the first reaction I usually just leave the stock be but for the other two reactions, I will go and take a look at my past analysis to see whether I’ve “predicted” it’s future. Two stocks caught my eye as one went to the sky and one straight to hell. Both were similar in the sense that they faced crises except that one managed to turnaround whereas the one in the depths of hell have a long way to go.<br />
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Let’s start with the one in hell which is <a href="https://joycelje.blogspot.sg/2014/10/capita-plc-cpi.html" target="_blank">Capita </a>which I did a sort of write up on in 2014. I last saw it in 2016 where it’s value had dropped but today when I saw it’s price, my jaw dropped. This is one stock I did not invest or trade in. I was tempted to long it during its dip but I didn’t. I caught up on the news and realised that one of its competitors had gone under and there were fears that Capita would kaput too. It got so bad that a junior government minister had to go and meet Capita’s team just in case they are in deep shit.<br />
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I took at look at my analysis and realised Wah I was so wrong, I actually said this was a pick for the long term! Luckily I don’t even listen to myself sometimes when it comes to investments and trades. But I knew I wouldn’t invest in it despite the review because of FX, limited upside as it’s not a growth stock and it’s price back then was rather expensive as well. I did look at it several times for trades but I just never did any.<br />
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The other bright shining star which is <a href="https://joycelje.blogspot.sg/2015/03/investment-theme-life-and-death.html" target="_blank">Bellamy</a> made me feel like kicking myself in the arse. This was a stock I had invested and made tons of money on it but even then I would have expected it to reach its current price. I wished I had held on to it instead of selling it off. In fact I did consider buying it again but I just didn’t. I wasn’t sure whether I should as the price keeps on going up considering that it IPOed at slightly over AUD1.<br />
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They also went through a crisis of sorts when their biggest overseas market (China) passed some laws, slump in sales which almost caused them to go bust, the board got cleaned up and CEO sacked and yet they came out stronger a year later. By right I should have gotten in when the shares plunged but I was so busy and still am ridiculously busy that I’ve no time to trade and invest thus this blog doesn’t get updated regularly.<br />
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I got to know about both companies through my precious jobs. I realized that my best investments are from companies that I know or like or have got to know them through my precious jobs. For trading however, my best trades are in companies that I know zilch about so it doesn’t interfere with my decision making and let a trade become an investment. It’s time to make two separate lists to improve my performance. </div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7474286918479309982.post-78155820227319209272018-03-12T11:28:00.000+08:002018-03-12T11:28:11.822+08:00Investments of a lifetime<div style="text-align: justify;">
We have all invested in something in our lifetimes. It could be stocks, bonds, mutual funds, unit trusts or relationships, friendships, career, hobby or even ourselves. Does it all give us some sort of positive returns? Do we know what we are investing in? We sure know when we act in a certain way due to our vested interests so maybe vaguely subconsciously we know we have invested and would like to see a positive return. </div>
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We read charts, oscillators, analyst reports, reviews or speak to people to get an insight on our investments. We have a certain mindset when we invest and our emotions are definitely charged if things don’t turn out well. Amongst all your investments, which ones are you most happy with? Which ones would you like to cut out from your portfolio or even your life? </div>
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Our times horizons vary depending on the type of investments and our own expectations. Some investment would only yield results in years to come whereas others could bring a smile to us in a few minutes. Sometimes we prolong our pain hoping that a negative would turn into a positive believing that time would change things. Yes and no depending on what type of investments you are looking at. </div>
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There’s no right or best time to review your investments. Look at them today if something has been bothering you. Don’t push it away. Confront it and work at it or cut it out. Don’t let it fester and become something huge that you can’t bear the pain later. Do it for yourself and do it right and do it now.</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7474286918479309982.post-62203083489468833362017-07-25T11:36:00.001+08:002017-07-25T11:36:39.125+08:00Are you exchanging time for money?<div style="text-align: justify;">
Time is the most precious commodity on Earth. Or maybe it should be oxygen because without it we would just die! Assuming that our basic needs are met ensuring our survival, then time is more valuable than money although some may argue that money can be used to buy time. It's true in some situations and not in others. For example, money can help to relieve you of some mundane tasks so that you have more time to do things that you like. But money can't buy you time with your loved ones if their time is up.<br />
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If you hate your job, you may feel like you are exchanging your time for money especially as you count down the minutes, days, weeks, months or even years to a new job or to a new endeavour that hopefully won't make you dread getting out of bed everyday.</div>
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Sometimes I think we forget how precious time is and waste it like it is always there. In a way time is like oxygen, we breathe every second until we forget its very existence until it is taken away from us. The time to invest or trade is always present but we find ourselves busy in other activities that we miss the opportunity which may only come back much later in life. Perhaps we always have something more important or maybe we are procrastinating....</div>
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Time is sacred to me, more so now than ever before because my time is no longer my own but must be given or in a way dictated by a loved one. In years to come, I hope that I will still remember the time spent together so that I can reminisce and wonder aloud at how time flew by. Maybe that's how investors feel when they invest and forget about the existence of their portfolio until years later and hopefully the seeds planted then would have grown into a beautiful strong tree with fruits all ready for harvesting. </div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7474286918479309982.post-66118775514118166242017-03-18T19:57:00.001+08:002017-03-18T19:57:18.271+08:00Believe in yourself <div style="text-align: justify;">
I recently took profit on 2 stocks which I invested in 2 years ago. The reason was because only now are they in the black therefore I quickly cut off ties! I still have a few investments from 2 years back which are still in the red despite dividends so it is frustrating and also shows that I definitely didn't buy at the right time.</div>
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One of them was CDL which showed a spectacular run which I've no idea why and don't care why as it has been two long years with no dividends I think. However despite all the dividends, I'm still just barely breaking even for Suntec REIT which I also intend to sell off if only it would go up a bit more! </div>
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I guess the question should be why didn't I add to these stocks during those two years as it went lower or even as it was recovering. I was preoccupied with trading and stopped investing although I do monitor the price levels of existing investments. All available funds went into trading and investment took a backseat although recently I started nibbling at a REIT which I used to own as the prices are very attractive. </div>
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I doubt I will own stocks other than two REITS which I am very familiar with. ACCICB told me that he knows of this coffee shop uncle in the army camp who only owns one stock in his portfolio. That stock is SingTel and he buys a big chunk each year for the past donkey years and just look at the stock price of SingTel now! He's better than most FA out there who try to sell you funny investment products! He didn't care about concentration risk or rebalancing your portfolio or whatever bs that's been told.</div>
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Now if only we can all have that one stock just like he does in our portfolio and believe in it despite what everyone tells us.</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7474286918479309982.post-10128372639624402092017-02-02T14:23:00.000+08:002017-02-02T14:23:23.851+08:00Never say never<div style="text-align: justify;">
I've learnt to not say never because it seems the more I say never I end up doing it or it ends up happening. It's like the law of attraction...of sorts...the more certain you are about a certain thing..you attract it to you and ta da before you know it, it has occurred! </div>
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I saw some dips in REITS which I sold off and now it's at a price level which seems more palatable so I bought some lots two days ago and will look to buy more if the price is right. For the rest of my current SG stocks holdings, they are recovering but I'm not inclined to increase my holdings to average down or whatever you would like to call it. I'm still looking to dispose of them once the price is right which is like taking forever!<br />
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I'm beginning to favour just holding a few REITS which I'm familiar with for my SG holdings. Most of my time has been spent on trading as my trading strategy seems to be a mish mash of multiple styles and timelines which so far has been working out well for me most of the time. I'm exploring whether I'm to lock it down or delve deeper into one strategy or to continue with what I'm doing with some refinement.<br />
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My instinct is to refine what I'm currently doing which is a mixture of multiple trading strategies as it's something I'm familiar with and to good results most of the time. So far I've identified my style to be a mix of reversal, momentum and breakout trading with timelines of a day or more. I've yet to day trade but it is something I'm looking forward to doing in the end as it appeals to me in the sense that my work is done for the day and I can start a new day with no baggage.<br />
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This year shall be dedicated to trading and trading well. My aim is to report good results come Christmas this year! Huat ah! </div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7474286918479309982.post-26557669947196997932017-01-02T09:57:00.000+08:002017-01-02T09:57:31.528+08:00Reflections and Resolutions <div style="text-align: justify;">
I sold off some of my investments in REITS once they broke even a few months ago and am still on the lookout to sell off more but it is really far from its cost price and with the pittance of dividends, I don't know when I can see the light at the end of the tunnel. Recently their prices have dropped so it was a good move to sell them earlier on. </div>
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On the other hand, my trading has improved in the last few months and I'm booking higher profits with no losing trades so that's great news in the sense that I'm slowly but surely getting better. I've yet to fully optimize each trade's profits as I'm still very much a novice but am learning along the way so that's an area I need to work on. Definitely need to work on exits more than entries it seems. </div>
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I think the greatest lesson so far for me would be the fact that I continue to trade even if my current positions are in a loss making position or if I cut loss. Previously, I would fret and be upset and fearful of taking on new positions which are right calls due to existing loss making positions which just needed more time to turn positive or the pain of cutting loss is too much to bear.<br />
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I guess the key is to not be emotional about money because it clouds my mind and hence affects my decision. To not be emotional about money is not easy regardless of whether you are rich or poor. If you are always in fear of money and worried about spending money, it would be hard to grow your money because you would not be thinking of multiplying money but am instead concerned of rationing money.<br />
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I've not been blogging much and have been guilty of 'consuming' by reading other blogs etc instead of 'producing' content on my blog. It is so much easier to consume than to produce so while I may get ideas for new posts, I hardly pen it down. It is similar to investing and trading, we may read and consume many ideas or opinions about different stocks but when it comes to executing or producing results with our picks, we hesitate and wait instead.<br />
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In 2017, I intend to just focus on JPY market. I hope to produce rather than consume as I'm still in the game as 2016 comes to a close. My goal is to end 2017 on a positive note and a positive mindset is key as I've been hatching Lapras, Pikachua, Dratini, Elekid, Magby etc just by thinking how nice it would be to have them to complete my Pokedex. I'm thinking of not playing it after I heard that there are more than 700 monsters and a region exclusive could be based in Antarctica! Now if only I apply that positive thinking to thoughts like how nice it would be to become a millionaire through trading ;D</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7474286918479309982.post-39308228809946751182016-12-22T22:04:00.000+08:002016-12-27T10:32:53.660+08:00Christmas is coming<div style="text-align: justify;">
I absolutely love Christmas and would love to spend every Christmas and New Year in a different country, to soak in the lights, the atmosphere and the general happiness of it all. That has yet to happen so it's definitely on my bucket list! Last year around this time, I received the best gift of my life and since then Christmas takes on a different meaning for me. </div>
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The only awful part of December is the fact that it rains more often than usual which means our dog don't get to walk out much and too much rain does make everything look depressing. But there were a couple of wonderful sunny and windy days which ACCICB tells me is perfect CNY weather. Which means 2017 CNY weather would not be like that...it could probably end up being scorching hot! </div>
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There's also lesser trading volume in the market and so while it was tempting to execute trades, I chose not to. It seems to be the right call so far and with Christmas just 3 days away it is time to be merry and rejoice..since reflections and resolutions can come later on New Year's Eve. </div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7474286918479309982.post-73340904233198503302016-07-02T11:21:00.003+08:002016-07-02T11:21:54.293+08:00A year later<div style="text-align: justify;">
It has been a year since I started trading as I took a break on and off for a few months here and there due to personal circumstances and it is only in the past few weeks that I have managed to successfully know and close my positions before the trend reverses. Previously, I just hope and hold on which reduces profits and also destroys my self esteem as I start to question whether I can only short but can't long successfully. I was tempted to reverse my trade twice but didn't and I was spot on both times! Argh, I'm still second guessing myself! </div>
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I'm still way better at shorting although I only started shorting much later in my trading journey . Somehow my instinct for shorting is almost always spot on but since nothing goes down forever, I urgently need to work on knowing when to long. ACCICB told me that's because there's only panic selling and no panic buying due to human psychology which is why shorting seems to work better for me. I seem to always miss the boat when it comes to buying and by the time I caught on, I'm unsure whether prices will continue to head north. </div>
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I also learnt that I am just simply attuned to momentum trading rather than trend reversal trading. I'm working on systemizing my momentum trading and at the same time using ACCICB's trend reversal trading system in a bid to improve my skills in that area. I question whether I'll ever get good enough to make a living out of this and I must say that ACCICB is more positive in this aspect as he's confident that he will master it. </div>
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The market has been hideous thus far and I'm far from breaking even due to some horrible trades done in the early part of my trading journey. I do see myself improving as evidenced by my archived trades and have been visualizing my growing account balance which has yet to happen. It seems to take just one bad trade to make me rethink everything and also hold off on making new trades which is very counter productive so it's another area I need to work on.<br />
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In the early days, my best trades were investment picks which I traded. Nowadays my best trades are based on momentum which I'm in and out in a day to a couple of days. I feel that it keeps stress to a minimum for me and I make sufficient profits to not be bothered by the trend going sideways or reversing. I usually don't reverse my trades which means I'm fighting with just one hand so till the day I can reverse my trades with ease and confidence would be the day that I've nailed trading!<br />
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Now the problem is that momentum trades aren't available everyday or at least I'm not good enough to spot them on a regular basis such that I can make a living out of it so I'm still researching to see whether I can mix momentum trading with trend reversal trading to get the best possible results as well as have more frequent trading opportunities. I've done one trade based on this mix and it was successful so I would continue to see how things goes. </div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7474286918479309982.post-24795147061890919032016-06-25T11:27:00.000+08:002016-06-25T11:27:13.032+08:00Brexit<div style="text-align: justify;">
I'm surprised that Brexit happened... I thought like most other people that they wouldn't have the guts to exit the EU. But then again, you gotta admit that Brexit sounds a whole lot sexier, trendy and catchy than Bremain which sounds like spoilt bread. </div>
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I think the ordinary Brits have spoken as they are probably displeased with the way their country has become. I read with interest and horror from a recent article in Cosmo UK that hutching is how young people are surviving the ridiculous rents in central London. I think immigration is also a hot button issue and perhaps that's why outside of London, there were many votes for Brexit.</div>
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I was laughing my head off with some of the other names that were given for other EU nations should they choose to exit the EU and boy are these people creative or what! My personal faves are Czechout and Byegium although funnily they have yet to come out with suitable ones for France and Germany. </div>
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I wanted to buy some British stocks yesterday but by the time market closed, it had gone up by more than 2% although it was down by about the same amount when market opened. I think the intraday traders were the happiest lot yesterday. This coming week, I would be looking out for opportunities in the market as well as considering a holiday to London given the weaker sterling. </div>
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I did make some good money in the weeks before Brexit so I didn't execute any trades yesterday. But maybe I wouldn't be too late so this coming week could either be busy or very relaxing...I'm not sure yet since this is probably one of the most exciting times in the stock market in recent years. </div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7474286918479309982.post-30765974547313827252016-06-01T09:52:00.001+08:002016-06-01T09:52:43.569+08:00Reflections<div style="text-align: justify;">
Recently I managed to get a part time cleaner to come once a fortnight and as I watched her clean I realized that I can never be as efficient and effective as her. It doesn't help that my attempts at cleaning have not been successful as evidenced by the awful water marks on the bathroom glass door or the floor is never as sparkling as hers even 2 days after she has done the cleaning! </div>
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Of course she's more experienced than me and I did pick up some tips from her which she kindly told me as well as from observing how she does chores for 3 hours. Even ACCICB is amazed by her and keeps telling me that he has never had such a clean house before depsite growing up with a helper since he was a child which also means I'm far from meeting the mark. </div>
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Cleaning may seem like it has nothing to do with trading and investing but I think there are some similarities. Firstly, cleaning is a chore that needs to be repeated as no home stays clean forever. Till the day someone has inventing a self cleaning house, cleaning would still remain a chore for many unless you are one of the few who love cleaning then well this post is probably irrelevant to you!<br />
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Investing and even trading can be something you keep procrastinating or postponing if you don't enjoy it because the rewards can be fleeting much like cleaning and you have to keep repeating it if you want to reap benefits from it. In fact, investing and trading are a negative sum game, once you commit, you start paying fees such as commissions first before knowing the end result.<br />
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I wish I can tell you how to make cleaning fun but it does make me feel more accomplished after I managed to halve my cleaning time with better results. It does help to learn from a pro and I wish I can say the same for investing and trading but I doubt I ever want to spend tons of money on learning from somebody before seeing for myself how it can transform my game. </div>
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Secondly, you can actually feel ashamed if you don't clean well especially if you are at home while she cleans away. Each time she comes, ACCICB would ask her to do less important chores because he's afraid she doesn't have enough time to complete the more critical ones and each time she'll reassure him that she has more than enough time! Guess that's the difference between a pro trader and a wannabe, the pros are confident in what they can achieve in a given time frame.<br />
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Lastly, I'm still trying to see how she can come on a weekly basis but unless some of her clients give up her service which is impossible or we shift to where she stays, I think I have to just continue to be grateful that she's coming because finding someone like her would be even more difficult than making money in investing and trading as managing others is almost always more difficult than self management. </div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7474286918479309982.post-54608412437946906902016-03-02T22:41:00.000+08:002016-03-02T22:41:59.082+08:0010 Things I wish I knew before I started Trading<div style="text-align: justify;">
1. Paper trade successfully for a period of time (at least a few months) before diving in. Start by keeping your trades small because your focus is to get it right rather than make it big. By starting small, your stress levels are reduced and you can make better decisions. Be prepared to stop live trading for a while if your small live trades go bad and after closing your open positions, you need time to research and look through your trade diary/notes or make new notes to find out where you went wrong. The key is to observe, be patient, dedicate yourself and persevere for a period of time so no shortcuts to trading success unless you are one of the few trading geniuses out there.<br />
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2. Seed money would depend on type of trading instruments you trade, equities can be costly so your seed money has to be substantial. Depending on types of market and if daylight savings is a factor to be considered, your seed money has to be adjusted accordingly. Decide on your filters such as industries, shorting fees, average volume traded etc to build your watchlist. If news, earnings announcements etc factors as part of your filter, by all means add them in.<br />
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3. Ensure that you always have some liquidity in your account so you would not get margin call or margin call warning emails by breaking up your purchases into bite sizes and try to have a mix of both long and short positions in various markets and industries. The last thing you want is for your broker to liquidate your positions at whatever price they can execute. I prefer to use forex to cover any losses upon exiting my positions and similarly convert any forex gains back to SGD. This is to take out the element of forex swings just in case I don't make any trades in that market for a while. Alternatively you can choose to park part of your funds in various currencies and convert your gains at a later stage.<br />
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4. Scanning for suitable trades to be executed takes time if you don't use a software to do so thus focus on the watchlist that you have built and test out how much time you need to scan them and how many times you need to scan during market hours. You could scan twice or thrice during market hours and put in your trade at certain hours during market hours. Don't put in your orders too late because you may not get your trade executed in time before market closes. This becomes especially relevant when there's a price you wish to execute at instead of the current market price and the equity at stake is not a big cap thus volumes are typically lesser.<br />
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5. Paying for live prices is something you have to decide as it is a cost which would be beneficial if you do frequent trades. Do check whether your broker provides free live prices for the markets and instruments you wish to trade in. This could be a factor to consider when deciding which markets to trade in. Alternatively do search around for websites that provide delayed prices but again you have to work on your trading techniques to make that work for you. It's best to take a systematic approach to trading as orderliness ensures efficiency and effectiveness and seriously you need one less thing to spend time on.<br />
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6. Maintain discipline in exiting existing positions before taking on new positions. Don't have too many open positions because it can be a form of stress when they are all doing badly and you have no clue what to do. Resist the urge to add on to existing positions especially if they are in the red and stop loss can be a bane or a saviour depending on how you use it. Don't be greedy and do take profit instead of always holding out for higher profits because it can quickly turn into a losing trade. One way is to have 2 lots for each trade rather than 1 but this won't even matter if you maintain discipline in the first place!<br />
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7. Be prepared to embrace a whole multitude of emotions when trading. This is one of the most difficult aspects of trading to overcome and nobody will ever be able to prepare you for it. It is a journey that you must undertake alone and hopefully come out stronger and more ready to face what Mr Market has in store for you. The trading skills that you have or you think you have would be tested and you may find yourself having to change or improve your techniques so change is constant and it is difficult to remain open to changing while not constantly second guessing yourself. I call it mastery of oneself and its truly a journey of self discovery.<br />
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8. There are many types of trading strategies from day, swing, trend following, momentum etc but you have to find out what works for you and what doesn't. ACCICB and I have different approaches to trading and while we learn from each other, we have our preferences or nuances and neither of us is worst off by doing it our way. Both of us took some time to experiment and we share what we learn as we are newbies and self taught without having taken any courses. The Internet is a great resource to learn the basics and maybe the intermediate but the advanced charting techniques and skills are nowhere to be found for free anyway.<br />
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9. Think of trading as a way of gaining skills that is yours and yours alone and an excellent way of providing some form of income regardless of how the economy is doing. It is indeed difficult to master and sometimes I wonder whether it is possible for me to master. It is one of the few skills that you don't need to advertise or find a job for as the markets are always open for you to put your skills to good use. There are other skills that could be more valuable than trading and given that increasingly humans are trading against bots, you start to wonder whether we can beat them at trading or it's a lost cause. Maybe what we need to do is not to try to beat them but to be riding the wave in the same direction. <br />
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10. It is way way more stressful, difficult and tiring than you ever think but not impossible because how you trade is within your control. To be profitable consistently is what all traders seek but find it difficult to attain. It is a long, arduous journey with seemingly insurmountable difficulties and the choice remains yours whether to continue to trek forward or to turn around. </div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7474286918479309982.post-75633216399518098612016-02-07T13:32:00.001+08:002016-02-07T13:32:38.893+08:00Thoughts on Lunar New Year <div style="text-align: justify;">
For some people like ACCICB, the new year only begins after Lunar New Year. For me, I prefer 1st January but whichever approach you take doesn't matter as long as it signifies a fresh start for you. </div>
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Much like in investing or trading, there are many ways to be successful and what works for you may not work for others. It's good to read about what others do for reference but to try to emulate them may not necessarily be the best way to go about doing things. </div>
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Multiple factors are at play when we invest or trade and our response or avoidance brings about different results which may end up affecting our decisions in the future. However your investing or trading performance was for last year, this year could mean a tidal wave change or a small ripple in your portfolio. </div>
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If you have not already done so, it's time to set yourself free from the shackles of the past so that you can begin living in the present and perhaps even striving for the future. </div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7474286918479309982.post-11147765366377600132016-01-10T14:27:00.000+08:002016-01-10T14:27:02.308+08:00Losing 10% of your net worth <div style="text-align: justify;">
No, that person wasn't me! ACCICB told me he heard of somebody who lost that much last year in the stock market. Regardless of how much the person's net worth was, 10% is a huge amount to lose in a year! I was asked to guess the dollar value of the person's loss and even after 10 guesses, I still didn't hit the magic number! </div>
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Let's just say that it is impossible for most people to have that kind of money in a lifetime and the amount lost can feed 10 families comfortably throughout their existence on earth. That conversation triggered off this post as most people have probably already calculated their realised /& unrealised portfolio loss/ net worth loss now that we are in the early days of 2016.</div>
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Since investing typically means waiting for the value of a stock to appreciate, in such economic doldrums, valuations get slashed and usually so does dividends. I can't help but wonder with the changing nature of the world, valuations would be calculated differently and even if the global economy gets nursed back to health, the formula for success would no longer be the same. </div>
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We may never see the kind of valuations for the stocks we hold in our portfolio or we may see them but that could be years later, nobody knows for sure but the red ink in your portfolio is something staring at you everyday. It could take years of dividends to offset the drop in valuations for some stocks and I would be so grateful if the valuations would recover in my lifetime. </div>
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I was cutting stocks last year during the dead cat bounce whereas everyone else was accumulating with the notion that the market has recovered. I was delighted that I had the chance to escape as I had and still have the view that 2016 would most likely be more of 2015 but a tinge more bearish. I have to be more careful with any investments that I make this year but I'll likely be spending most of my time on trading. </div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com13tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7474286918479309982.post-63614535629002959092015-12-31T10:35:00.000+08:002015-12-31T10:35:05.267+08:00Onward to 2016<div style="text-align: justify;">
I don't blog much these days but December has always been an interesting month for me as I love X'mas save for the rain in Singapore. I'm usually in a good mood due to the festivity especially if I'm overseas soaking in the X'mas lights, enjoying the good food and happily shopping in the cold. I reflect on how I have spent the year and hope that next year would be better. Because no matter how good this year has been, you always want the next year to be better and that's human nature I guess.</div>
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2015 has been a particularly challenging year for me in all aspects of my life and I'm glad 2016 is almost here! While I think that trading in 2015 was really difficult for me as I made the transition from investor to trader, I can only work on myself such that 2016 would end on a positive note. Whatever Mr Market throws at me, I've gotta be ready to decide and then act upon it. </div>
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But I've not forgotten my investor roots and intend to park some money in some growth stocks which I have yet to identify. This was after hearing an elderly tell his tales of how he made some moolah on US stocks, some of which he still holds. That was inspiring and thought provoking and kinda made me want to get into the action again of finding hidden gems that look like stones on the outside.</div>
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Now trading on the other hand requires different skills which I'm picking up although I can't say it's natural to me, I think I'm getting better but I've yet to feel that it's just second nature to me. Somehow the competitive nature inside me just can't seem to give up or rather don't wish to or rather can't give up so I'm still in the game. My calls are getting better and I've adjusted to the crazy daylight savings hours but there's still room for improvement.</div>
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I'm a huge advocate of lifelong learning, maybe because I get bored easily and I get interested to learn all sorts of things. They became sources of ideas for investment since I was exposed to all sorts of things. In fact, ACCICB used to threaten to ban me from taking up classes for all sorts of things which are unrelated to each other. What can I say, I'm a lady of diverse interests although I'm not sure how that will help me in becoming a better trader!<br />
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I have trimmed down my investment portfolio in 2015 and it now comprises of SG stocks. I'm looking to add some overseas growth stocks to my portfolio and I think I'm quite keen on US stocks despite having not bought a single US stock in my life. ACCICB has got bad experiences with US stocks but I think in such a big market like US, there are bound to be many hidden gems. USD seems to be more stable now so I don't have to fear currency risk eating into my investment profits.<br />
<br />
I won't be adding any more SG stocks as I've a bearish sentiment on SG market and I'm looking to sell the rest once they break even which I think could be a long time from now considering how bad the market was in 2015. This was due to not averaging in although I'm glad I didn't, because it was not a recovery that we saw but more like a dead cat bounce which allowed me to cut 2 SG stocks at break even.<br />
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Farewell and good riddance to 2015 and here's hoping that 2016 would be a smoother, more prosperous and less vexing year ahead!</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7474286918479309982.post-44129948920427019942015-12-24T10:21:00.000+08:002015-12-24T10:21:12.597+08:00Positive or Realistic Advice<div style="text-align: justify;">
I wish Doctors will give positive and realistic advice...if not I rather get the realistic than the positive advice. At least that way I get to prepare myself mentally for what may happen. But I guess Doctors can't do that when they have never gone though the procedure themselves or gotten sick that way before.<br />
<br />
It's very much like trading and investing if you think about it. For a small time retail trader and investor, we have different resources and pain threshold so when we talk to the professionals, we think that they can give us positive and realistic advice. The truth is, unless they have gone through the path of being a small time retail trader and investor and come out tops, they could try to understand what you are going through but will never experience the pain that is hurting you everyday.<br />
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Simply because your mind, body and soul reacts to the pain differently from others. They have been hardened by numerous battles, scars aplenty to show their time spent in war and they are always ready. But even then, they have an edge over us, given their knowledge, $$$ and experience, to the point that if they ever decide to quit and become a full time retail trader and investor, we expect them to fare better than us.<br />
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Thus I'm interested to follow the journey of normal folks who have decided to become full time retail traders and investors as it is far more interesting and applicable to myself. It is not the case of David vs Goliath angle that attracts me, but more of the everyday normacly that I can relate to and hey maybe even inspire me to strive forward.<br />
<br />
This year has been a tough trading year for me, I learnt lots though and have been applying the new lessons thus stemming the red ink but unlikely to close the year with black ink. With less than a week to 2016, I have been awarded with an early Christmas gift which goes to show that Christmas will always be my favourite holiday and 2016 will indeed be a much better year for me. </div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7474286918479309982.post-12799497513480557242015-12-07T13:50:00.000+08:002015-12-07T14:26:29.499+08:00Performance review of past stocks analysis<div style="text-align: justify;">
I've not blogged for a while because I've been busy with other stuff and nothing came to mind and since this is not a job, I don't see why I've to push out articles for the sake of it. The year is coming to a close so I thought of reviewing how the stocks that I blogged about performed thus far and for simplicity, I'll just take the stock's closing price on the day that I wrote about them (as close as possible) and last Friday's price.<br />
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Then Now<br />
<b>ASX</b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
BAL A$2.80 A$12.64</div>
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IVC A$13.26 A$11.80<br />
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<b>SGX</b><br />
C09 S$10.21 S$7.16<br />
C31 S$3.53 S$3.23<br />
U14 S$7.60 S$6.14<br />
O23 S$2.00 S$1.03<br />
K01 S$0.87 S$0.91<br />
OV8 S$0.66 S$0.85<br />
5DA S$1.32 S$1.14<br />
C61U S$1.70 S$1.34<br />
N2IU S$1.45 S$1.33<br />
SK6U S$1.06 S$0.94<br />
D01 S$9.18 S$5.81<br />
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<b>HKSE</b><br />
2278 HK$3.42 HK$4.04<br />
0341 HK$26.60 HK$24.00<br />
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<b>TSE</b><br />
7741 ¥4947 ¥4878<br />
7846 ¥2985 ¥5280<br />
2809 ¥2008 ¥3005<br />
8113 ¥2487 ¥2482<br />
2267 ¥6100 ¥6120<br />
2914 ¥3918 ¥4407<br />
8136 ¥3040 ¥2911<br />
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<b>Europe</b><br />
EI €110.50 €116.25<br />
SFL €14.59 €10.63<br />
GVNV €21.92 €25.78<br />
LUX €59.20 €61.80<br />
CDI €155.85 €170.25<br />
KU2 €58.98 €81.41<br />
RI. €91.74 €92.10<br />
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<b>UK</b><br />
RB. £5110p £6206p<br />
CHOO £140p £125.30p<br />
CPI £1127p £1239p<br />
DGE £1768p £1891p<br />
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A bag of mixed results is what I see and there are some stocks that I hold, some that I avoided, some that I traded a couple of times with good profits and some missed opportunities here and there.<br />
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7474286918479309982.post-86306270734042886322015-10-26T15:51:00.000+08:002015-10-26T15:51:52.066+08:00Calling out for Trikomsel bondholders<div style="text-align: justify;">
If you have read the news lately, you would have heard of Trikomsel restructuring their bonds and this post is to spread the word that they are looking for their fellow bondholders to contact them at trikomselbonds@yahoo.com as strength is in numbers for a case like this. </div>
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The bondholders are likely to be accredited investors such as private banking clients with the banks in Singapore or maybe fund houses or institutions etc thus it came as quite a shock initially as this is the first time in 6 years that a SGD denominated bond is seeking a restructure of its bonds which could mean a few things such as no more coupons till the maturity date, extension of maturity tenor, haircut and of course the dreaded loss of principal. </div>
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According to Tradehaven where I read this news, Trikomsel held a meeting with their bondholders today, which could mean the private banks who act as custodians of the bonds and maybe some individual retail bondholders who have this bond registered under their name and lodged with CDP have already heard what actions will be taken and how they will be affected.</div>
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I took a look at the bonds that were issued as well as the 2012 - 2014 annual report to suss out what could have been the issue for Trikomsel to take this step of a potential debt restructure.</div>
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The first S$115m bond was issued on 10 May 2013, maturing on 10 May 2016 with a fixed interest of 5.25% and the second S$100m bond was issued on 5 June 2014 with the same three year tenor except that the interest was much higher at 7.875% and it would be maturing on 5 June 2017. Both bonds pay out coupons every half yearly.<br />
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Funny that the 2012 annual report was only posted on 13 May 2013 so I'm not sure whether any bondholders of the first issue had read the annual report. The purpose of issuing the bonds which by all nature seems very normal, they raise funds (lower cost of financing) to pay off their existing banks loans (higher cost of financing). That works out great for the company but not so much for the shareholders and now the bondholders given the potential loss of coupon and principal because it is non value adding nor does it provide growth of any sort and hence the reason for the higher interest rate given.<br />
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Trikomsel did a rights issue (new shares and MCB) in 2012 to acquire PT Global Teleshop so that they can be Indonesia's largest telephone retailer with the largest number of networks. Since the acquisition, sales did jump in 2013 obviously but the increase became less significant in 2014. Perhaps there should be a relook at the profitability of the outlets as this will have an impact on their operating costs which is slightly higher than their finance costs.<br />
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Majority of the shareholders are all institutions who have mandatory convertible bonds (MCB) which can only be converted into shares once during conversion period of 13 January 2016 - 13 July 2017 and interest of 3% is paid at the time of conversion. There is no part conversion and it can't be traded or transferred to a conversion and it is a 1:1 conversion.<br />
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This probably explains why they couldn't take the action of rights issue since the existing shareholders have this MCB. A close look at the 2014 annual report shows that the shareholders have changed since 2012 as the current public shareholders who own less than 5% shares is a paltry 12.66%.<br />
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I was surprised how the shareholding structure had changed since 2009. The first two years (2009-2010) was pretty much the same but 2011 was the start of the changes and since then new shareholders came and old shareholders left. This would seem BAU except that these shareholders own more than 5% each and they don't seem to get a board seat so running of the firm is left to management. I didn't do a search or trace back the UBO behind the new companies so I'm not sure whether its just a new company name but same UBO as the new shareholder.<br />
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It is also funny that most of the directors or board members (as stated in 2014 annual report) don't own any shares in Trikomsel and there seems to be no mention of performance being linked to compensation. I don't see any bonuses or share awards or stock options being tied to compensation. Dividends were not paid out since 2013 as they did not meet the conditions of their dividend policy.<br />
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In terms of significant agreements and commitments, I noted with interest that there are some expired or expiring purchase or distributorship agreements so I wonder whether they have been concluded and with positive effects for Trikomsel as this will have an impact on their revenue.<br />
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Trikomsel has pledged most of their assets such as cash and cash equivalents, accounts receivables, inventories etc to the banks as collateral for their usage of the banking facilities. There is a list of financial and non financial covenants that they have to meet which I think may have been breached thus bond restructuring was deemed necessary as this was the only unsecured debt they have.<br />
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I was surprised to see the list of bankers they have and existing or new banking facilities have been extended, renewed at higher interest rates which probably explains the squeeze on their finances. Besides the possibility of having to pay facility fees for renewal, therein lies the issue of having to seek prior written approval of a whole list of actions and one of them is to seek for bankruptcy which I doubt would be the case here for Trikomsel. Some banking facilities were terminated as well and their facilities are mainly in IDR and USD while the bonds are in SGD.<br />
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There is a line in the annual report that says that the bonds have a cross currency swap which would only expire upon maturity thus I'm not sure why their derivative liabilities in 2014 are like 4x that of 2013 unless this means they don't somewhat hedge partially of some sort (interest rates and currency) for everything else they do? I'm guessing FX and the less than stellar global and of course Indonesian economy didn't help Trikomsel but I think the signs were there much earlier on and it is anybody's guess what will happen eventually.<br />
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I'm not sure whether they have tried other cost cutting measures before coming to this step and if they had not, this would indeed be very upsetting if I am one of the bondholders. I also wonder whether any institutions or corporates own a substantial chunk of the bonds as this would mean more bargaining power for the retail bondholders who can tag along in case of a fight. But would this mean throwing egg at their faces for openly stating that they are affected? As for Polaris Ltd, this would just mean that their associate company is not doing well and for Softbank, it would be an investment given their share ownership of 19.9%. Would Softbank come to the rescue and become a white knight remains closely watched in the days to come. </div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7474286918479309982.post-85798279413284520302015-10-25T12:18:00.002+08:002015-10-25T12:18:11.864+08:00Aspire to Inspire<div style="text-align: justify;">
I've been fiddling with my investment portfolio recently which saw me selling off some of my SG holdings. Some dough has been placed into SSB and we decided to give the Perennial Real Estate Holdings retail bond a miss since we have some exposure to them. I'm trying to figure out whether I can shorten my trading timeframe from a few days to just a day and maybe even intra-day which I target to do in a few years time. </div>
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I've also been testing out my new trading strategy and so far the picks have been right such that I can exit the next day with a nice profit. I think I'll continue to put this on trial before I officially start as "churning" my trades with just a one day time frame works nicely for me.</div>
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It's not that swing trading doesn't work for me but sometimes I do get kinda caught in trying to short and long or long and short the same stock which usually takes more than the couple of days if I want to maximise my profits. It would require me to exit first and then enter later on, it can't be done in the same trade although that would save me commission. </div>
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I prefer a cleaner method of a one day turnaround which would mean less attachment and less worries once the market closes. I would also have sufficient funds in the account to place new trades rather than panicking when I get email warnings that my margin cushion is declining. Strangely this hit me badly the first few times but then I got over it and manage my trades much better from then on.<br />
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A one day trade becomes important when the market snaps in gear due to news such as the recent ECB announcement of further stimulus as well as China cutting rates. Which means that by right the stocks that are supposed to go down will just rally up for a couple of days at least before they resumed their normal path.<br />
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Thus I can either cut my losses or hold on till they go down but to hold on means that I should never be fully vested if not I could get a margin call. Either I'm crazy which I think I am by trying to do this or it could be because we could potentially lose some serious money in an investment gone bad that we have to get this right or else our lifestyles have to change drastically.<br />
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Fear such as losing the roof over your head while you have no money in your account and children to feed can be extremely motivating such that you become a millionaire many times over. It is like staring death in the face and you can't shrink in fear but man up and strive to get yourself out of the hell hole asap. Success would mean wonderful stories that you can share with your children and grandchildren which would make their eyes pop and go Ahhh in wonder. Now aspiring to share such an inspiring story in the future. </div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7474286918479309982.post-37078251119355875712015-10-07T22:30:00.003+08:002015-10-07T22:30:52.362+08:00The only TA book you ever need<div style="text-align: justify;">
According to ACCICB, he only read 1 TA book and learnt the rest online and he told me that this book is the only book I will need to read. A reader left a comment long ago that he wanted to know what book it was, therefore this post is for that purpose and after this post I don't think I have any more posts I should write but haven't!<br />
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That book seems to be rather hard to buy given that it's so old as it was passed down by ACCICB's dad. The book is <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0786311762/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0786311762&linkCode=as2&tag=googiinves-20&linkId=D4J7BTHKJFT75PO3" target="_blank">Martin Pring on Market Momentum</a> and I wouldn't say its a beginner's book since it does expect you to have some basic knowledge of TA.<br />
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Although I'm a super fast reader, I took a long time to read this book. It's as if I want to digest it slowly, understand it, apply it to live charts of those companies on my watch list etc. I think it was also not a good first book to read if you are clueless about TA.<br />
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For a beginner, I would recommend Steve Nison's Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques which is truly englightening, easy to grasp and you can apply it immediately. Its slightly different from the Western charting techniques and Steve does an excellent job of telling you the similarities and the differences.<br />
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I'm beginning to see the positive effects TA has made to my trading strategy and I've started trading stocks that I've not researched on and it has worked out fine. I guess this was what it came down to as it seems that there's not enough hours a day to do both and come out winning.</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7474286918479309982.post-83806728498980332662015-10-02T18:27:00.000+08:002015-10-21T21:16:56.921+08:00Self Fulfilling Prophecy<div style="text-align: justify;">
I admire people who put themselves through tremendous odds as well as go through what outsiders view as hell to do what they love to do. Everytime I admire a painting or a sculpture or any piece of art, I can only think of how obsessive the creator was but really when you are doing it you don't think it's being obsessive but more of being in the moment and being fully absorbed.<br />
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In fact, you don't even find it tiring or boring but instead you are energized and excited and just want to reach perfection. Which is why most masters paint the same famous artwork more than once before the final piece is selected. In trading, there's no visible end product to be shown and everyday is a test of many things...your emotions, your mind, your conviction, your capital and the list goes on.<br />
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Although as time goes by, for me, the effect is lesser and I'm less affected by the changing numbers. Sometimes, you may find yourself thinking at the back of your head even when you are just going about your normal life and sometimes you may just figure out where you went wrong or why you missed out something and then you go back and look at it again and again and again until something clicks.<br />
<br />
I don't think they find themselves sacrificing anything while creating those works which is how I feel when I wake up at 2am in a foreign land while on holiday to check on my trades. But I didn't find that to be a sacrifice when I read how Monet painted Charing Cross which is by going from two places at different times of the day to observe the light on his subject matter. He did this for days on ends and yet he only completed a series of paintings back home with only his sketches and memory as references.<br />
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Nor do I feel anyway tired after a 14 hour flight with two simultaneously screaming twin babies a few rows in front of me and I just started checking on my positions when I landed. Despite not sleeping a wink, no shower and with the aid of two panadols, I closed my short position, watched the market and then proceeded to take a short nap before waking up just before market closes to see whether any decisions have to be taken. But no, I didn't sleep well...again somewhere out there I was thinking of the market...<br />
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I feel humbled in front of these masters of their own fate and even ACCICB was shocked to hear that Picasso had an estimated number of 50,000 works in his lifetime! It just reminds me that I, too am master of my own fate and while I may never be a Monet or a Picasso but that doesn't stop me from striving for perfection every single day for the rest of my life. Trading has become my chosen trade just like how art was the only life that these masters know. </div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7474286918479309982.post-37845128325405578782015-09-15T09:12:00.002+08:002015-09-15T09:12:55.223+08:00Missed by a cent<div style="text-align: justify;">
With the recent market volatility, ACCICB who trades the Chinese market told me that he missed buying a stock by a cent which went up 7% the next day. It was a clear morning star reversal pattern and in the last minute the prices just went sky high. This is the tough part when you don't have live prices on screen...at least that's how it affects me for another market. </div>
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Both of us concur that it was a clear buy and it was one of the few bright spots in the otherwise sea of red in the Chinese market. This just goes to show how difficult it can be to trade in such a market when you were never ever a pro before so it's like going against the odds which can be mightily satisfying when you do get it right. Provided that you still have the stomach to continue without going bonkers and without losing all your capital. </div>
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I do see a lot of worm holes forming over the past few weeks in the charts. Worm holes which was a term coined by ACCICB are basically stocks that are trading sideways, make a feeble attempt to rally despite overall down trend and then suddenly it just falls into the worm hole. This gets repeated as the stock goes down further and further in price as the down trend is just simply too strong.<br />
<br />
He told me that he read it wrongly when the stocks rally last week and we disagreed as he thinks it's a recovery whereas I think it's an attempt at recovery which failed as evident in the fall a few days later and I think the fall should continue since the SMA and Bollinger bands don't seem to be changing. </div>
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On the other hand, there are a few stocks with an expanded Bollinger band with a strong uptrend and nice white candles traveling along the bollinger band in the MACD sell zone. These I've shorted or waiting for the opportunity to short but what I really want to master is shorting in the buy zone which would allow me to long if the trend reverses. </div>
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There are also a lot of haramis and some harami crosses forming so it is a matter of separating them from the 'hai'ramis. Interestingly I've never acted on a harami before but ACCICB has way too many bad experiences with them which I've written previously. But he is way better than me at cutting losses which is something I'm working on. My long positions have been so bad that only my short positions can save the day. </div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7474286918479309982.post-61622211741568766672015-09-03T16:34:00.003+08:002015-09-05T09:05:09.113+08:00Shorting Spree<div style="text-align: justify;">
I remembered the first time I shorted a stock. That was two months into my full time trading journey and funnily it was done out of frustration of not knowing how to short when I'm seeing red everywhere. I searched online for a while but it seems nobody was telling me how to go about shorting a stock so I just had to do it for myself. </div>
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I thought that ACCICB would be the first to short and then I can learn from him how to do it properly but it seems this time I was the garang one as I took a loss on the long position and shorted it instead since I can't hold both short and long positions in IB. The trade ended well and I took a small profit. </div>
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My only mistake was that when I closed my short position, I should have long the stock again as it went up. But being a first timer and not knowing what buttons to press to close the short position, I was fumbling but happy that it ended well.</div>
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That was the start of my shorting career and it seems to sit well on me since gravity is working for me rather than against me. ACCICB called me a gangster for becoming a short seller and I thought to myself that short selling has its place in the market because truth be told, nothing can go up forever. </div>
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It's like climbing up to the top of the mountain and once you reach the peak, you have to come down unless you plan on living up there which we know is plain impossible. In recent days, it seems that shorting sprees are growing and the only thing that can cause a stock to break out of the market is earnings day. </div>
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But then your earnings better be damn freaking fantastic before you can break out of the market downtrend and register a strong white candle which would probably only last a day or two before it gets swallowed up by the market again. This is what happens when the market is in gear when you see chart patterns all over the world repeating themselves in different markets. </div>
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Once the market is out of gear is the time where things start to get interesting and it seems that the market is trying to do that...whether it succeeds or not awaits to be seen. </div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7474286918479309982.post-61023322198975587362015-08-24T11:43:00.000+08:002015-08-24T11:43:12.832+08:00Saved by a penny<div style="text-align: justify;">
There was once whereby ACCICB was saved by a penny as he placed a trade in the last few minutes but didn't get it because he was a penny short. The next day, the stock crashed which would have be disastrous as he was going to buy long. </div>
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Both of us were looking at the same stock but that night about twenty minutes before market was going to close, I told him that I'm tired from the morning's market and am going to call it a day. I decided to not buy anything although there were 3 stocks I was interested to long, one of which was the same one he was looking at. </div>
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Naturally the market crashed that day and the stocks I wanted to short was spot on although I didn't pull the trigger since that time I was still new to shorting. It was more like a blanket market crash with very few bright spots in the market so it was not skill but more like the gravity of the market is just overpowering the fundamentals of the company.<br />
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Whether now is the right time to go in, I think it's best to let the market start recovering before going in because as they say it's best not to catch a falling knife. For short sellers, now should be hey day as long as you can cover your ass before the market turns, you should be laughing all the way to the bank.<br />
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I'm also thinking how long this will continue because the longer this drags, I may just take a loss and go short which is what I did last Friday. So far it has played out well as the market is still in its southward descent and I'm seeing stochastics go out of the charts today! This does remind me of 2008 which was not a good year for me so I'm hoping this time round I can make things right. </div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7474286918479309982.post-64277949105945616962015-08-22T08:59:00.002+08:002015-08-22T08:59:50.068+08:00Playing the earnings game<div style="text-align: justify;">
During earnings season, I often have to ask myself whether I want to play the earnings game. There are times whereby earnings is good but the stock price crashed although it could also go up. Basically there is a 50% chance of either one happening and sometimes it can completely reverse the prevailing trend as well as the overall market sentiment to be one of the few bright sparks in the market.</div>
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There are times whereby I refrained myself and times where I go in with guns blazing. So far, I've had it both ways which means I'm neither a genius nor an idiot thus earnings day is an important consideration for me. Especially if today's the day to go in and tomorrow is earnings day. If it's a week later, it could be a maybe and if it's a month away, that's pretty far away so it's a go for me.<br />
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There was once a stock that I own which reported its earnings and somehow Google Finance didn't pick up the date so it was my mistake as I should have checked it through the exchange. That day was beautiful as I saw the stock blast through its downtrend and was up 7% by the time market closed. It was one of the few positive stocks that day in the entire market. </div>
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For me, if earnings was good and yet the stock price crashed, I could either cut loss, hold on or add on regardless of whether there are dividends that would be paid. Of course, dividends would be a bonus but not the sole deciding factor. That would be an investment if the company fundamentals has passed my litmus test. I could also go on the offensive and short it so there are many choices I can make. </div>
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Nowadays since I don't hold new stocks for investments, I become more selective and there are days I just paper trade and then check back to see whether I've become more accurate in my readings. Naturally, nothing can beat the sheer force of the market so at times I give it a couple of days to let it sit, much like wine before I can smell the bouquet. </div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7474286918479309982.post-57989279251182710002015-08-19T17:40:00.000+08:002015-08-19T17:40:37.644+08:00Going away<div style="text-align: justify;">
When ACCICB and I plan to go away on a holiday, we have to try to time it such that at least one of the markets are closed on some days or such that we have to close or reduce our open positions before we leave. This means that we may have to either hope and pray nothing goes wrong or slow down our buying activities in the days leading to the holiday or simply work while on holiday.</div>
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So far, we've done all 3 in its various combinations but my preference is to close all or reduce open positions since I do want to enjoy my holiday. Then when we are back, we can start again which sometimes takes time due to jet lag, lack of opportunities etc so going on holiday takes on a whole new meaning.</div>
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In the past, when we are on holiday I take note of companies that could be worth investing in and I've made some $$$ that way so I call it a win win situation! It's like a scouting trip of some sort. Now I tend to look at the time and try to find a place with free Wifi so that I can check on the market. </div>
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This works fine if we go to a nearby country for a holiday but everything changes when we go somewhere further whereby jet lag sets in and our internal body clock is all screwed up which does not make for good decision making at all. In fact, decision making should be limited just in case you screw up and so far I've not yet have to make any such decisions while on holiday. </div>
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Funnily I only discovered how wonderful holidays can be only last year when we visited NYC in the bitter winter. That was a turning point for me although ACCICB's turning point was like more than a decade ago when we went to Melbourne. But the flight to and back from NYC was tortuous such that I wish I didn't have to come back! Ever since that turning point, I started measuring $$$ in terms of holidays... Prior to that I had a different measuring system!<br />
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But last year was such a lovely year for trading and investing whereas this year is like a complete opposite. For the professionals I guess it's just game on for them, but for normal folks it can be hell of a ride. I'm still not that pleased with my score card and with only 4 months to go till the end of the way, I've to find a way to up my grades. </div>
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