A tale of two stocks

Once in a while say a year or two later, I will be very kaypoh and look at the past stocks that I’ve analysed before just to see how it’s doing. I may or may not have invested or traded in that stock but it just takes one second to click on the link and see the chart. I would have remembered it’s previous price so the current chart can either make me have 3 reactions. Oh chey, it’s the same or not much difference, Wow look at it go to heaven or Wah Kao this one die liao. 

For the first reaction I usually just leave the stock be but for the other two reactions, I will go and take a look at my past analysis to see whether I’ve “predicted” it’s future. Two stocks caught my eye as one went to the sky and one straight to hell. Both were similar in the sense that they faced crises except that one managed to turnaround whereas the one in the depths of hell have a long way to go.

Let’s start with the one in hell which is Capita which I did a sort of write up on in 2014. I last saw it in 2016 where it’s value had dropped but today when I saw it’s price, my jaw dropped. This is one stock I did not invest or trade in. I was tempted to long it during its dip but I didn’t. I caught up on the news and realised that one of its competitors had gone under and there were fears that Capita would kaput too. It got so bad that a junior government minister had to go and meet Capita’s team just in case they are in deep shit.

I took at look at my analysis and realised Wah I was so wrong, I actually said this was a pick for the long term! Luckily I don’t even listen to myself sometimes when it comes to investments and trades. But I knew I wouldn’t invest in it despite the review because of FX, limited upside as it’s not a growth stock and it’s price back then was rather expensive as well. I did look at it several times for trades but I just never did any.

The other bright shining star which is Bellamy made me feel like kicking myself in the arse. This was a stock I had invested and made tons of money on it but even then I would have expected it to reach its current price. I wished I had held on to it instead of selling it off. In fact I did consider buying it again but I just didn’t. I wasn’t sure whether I should as the price keeps on going up considering that it IPOed at slightly over AUD1.

They also went through a crisis of sorts when their biggest overseas market (China) passed some laws, slump in sales which almost caused them to go bust, the board got cleaned up and CEO sacked and yet they came out stronger a year later. By right I should have gotten in when the shares plunged but I was so busy and still am ridiculously busy that I’ve no time to trade and invest thus this blog doesn’t get updated regularly.

I got to know about both companies through my precious jobs. I realized that my best investments are from companies that I know or like or have got to know them through my precious jobs. For trading however, my best trades are in companies that I know zilch about so it doesn’t interfere with my decision making and let a trade become an investment. It’s time to make two separate lists to improve my performance. 

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