Making the right call vs Cracking the Code

Making the right call and cracking the code seem awfully similar but are vastly different. I doubt I will ever crack the code when it comes to FA simply because each company is different and I can't adopt a blanket 123 to decide which company to buy. Thus I have been trying to make the right call instead.

What exactly is the right call, I ask myself this same question everyday. My views may differ from the rest or may be in consensus but that does not give me any indication of whether my call is the right one. When faced with companies to choose from, I can either give a buy, neutral or never would I touch this stock decision and that's the call I make on a daily basis.

The strength of my conviction is what anchors me but even then I have doubts, being the mere mortal that I am. Especially when ACCICB was at my ear, telling me how the prices have not moved for my counters. But time has proven that if I had stayed true to my course, I would have reached or exceeded my target buying or selling price much much faster than expected.

In the midst of plunging prices, I refused to partake and average down. This is despite ACCICB telling me to buy at certain levels ever since the down trend started. When market closed, it was lower than it started. Many days of new lows were set but still I wait.

Results are going to be out next week and still I remain zen. It seems that there was a global sell down in the sector but still it seems for now, that the counter has rebounded or has it really... I'm not yet convinced. Even ACCICB can't seem to decide TA wise whether the rebound is temporary or otherwise. Fast forward, results are out but then the market seems to be undecided on the counter so it has been going up and down and sideways... Basically all over the place.

Sometimes I actually discourage ACCICB from buying the same counters as me! That's because my picks usually take time before the stock price rises and patience is not his strong suit. Many times we have the same counters bought at different prices and even when the price drop below our buying price, I remained calm but he's like OMG, WTF etc which I do not appreciate. If I had more liquid cash, I would have average down but for a stock with low liquidity, I would rather put my $$$ at work elsewhere. 

On the other hand, ACCICB has been trying to crack the code TA wise and while he's rather good, I wouldn't say he has cracked the code. He seems to have discovered new signals, indicators, chart patterns etc...after all the best time for learning is indeed during market volatility. He has also ditched some indicators that seem to be relevant for investing but not so for trading. I would say he's at the experimentation stage and it is quite amazing to look back at the journey he has taken so far. 

Cracking the code seems to be just as difficult a task from my observations. Every day is a learning day with missed opportunities and hopefully a step closer to cracking the code.

Related articles: Brain vs Eye
                           An equation to rule it all
                           The importance of having a good buddy

Comments

  1. Singapore Man of LeisureApril 17, 2015 at 5:49 PM

    Joyce,

    You remind me of the Million Dollar Traders where you are that cool and calm lady whom the Hedge Fund wishes to recruit after the TV series ;)

    I guess you and ACCIB will have to find out for yourselves whether you both invest/trade better as a team (you complement each other); or decide to invest/trade your own individual books (no copying!) since you both are 2 separate creatures ;)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Joyce LeongApril 17, 2015 at 10:17 PM

      You are too kind SMOL! We do have different books that overlaps at times and no I don't copy or peek! ;P

      Delete
    2. Eye of the StormApril 19, 2015 at 8:24 PM

      Hi it was nice reading your blog.

      I am also an investor too , but started blogging recently.
      Do check out my link:
      http://whatsbehindthenumbers.blogspot.sg.

      Hope we can learn from each other though :)

      Oh and btw, shall we link up?

      Regards,

      Delete
    3. Joyce LeongApril 19, 2015 at 9:23 PM

      Thanks for dropping by Eye of the Storm! That's a cool nick! Yup I've linked you up and we are all learners here... Mr Market is always evolving so shall we!

      Delete
  2. Money HoneyApril 19, 2015 at 11:40 PM

    One is good at making the right call
    And the other is good at cracking the code

    When you combine these two strengths then you will get a formidable union!

    It is important of having a good buddy, remember?

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

A tale of two stocks

Once in a while say a year or two later, I will be very kaypoh and look at the past stocks that I’ve analysed before just to see how it’s doing. I may or may not have invested or traded in that stock but it just takes one second to click on the link and see the chart. I would have remembered it’s previous price so the current chart can either make me have 3 reactions. Oh chey, it’s the same or not much difference, Wow look at it go to heaven or Wah Kao this one die liao.  For the first reaction I usually just leave the stock be but for the other two reactions, I will go and take a look at my past analysis to see whether I’ve “predicted” it’s future. Two stocks caught my eye as one went to the sky and one straight to hell. Both were similar in the sense that they faced crises except that one managed to turnaround whereas the one in the depths of hell have a long way to go. Let’s start with the one in hell which is  Capita  which I did a sort of write up on in 2014. I last saw it
Read more

FIRE

Recently there has been a lot of talk about financial independence and retiring early. FIRE for short it seems. I know plenty of people around me who have achieved FI but are not RE simply because they are not geared that way. They want to be mentally stimulated at their jobs or businesses and they continue everyday despite being able to tell their bosses to FO.  My ex boss who was retrenched from the bank when he was in his 40s could have RE years ago. He had a world class education from USA, worked in a big shot investment bank in USA and then came back to SG as his parents are here. His house was fully paid up, he had multiple investment properties but he was a man I respected for many reasons. He was highly intelligent but never stingy in mentoring me although he wasn't my mentor as my senior was supposed to do that instead. He was very frugal as he drives a second hand van, dresses simply and his wallet was falling apart but yet he doesn't change it at all. Yet, h
Read more

Believe in yourself

I recently took profit on 2 stocks which I invested in 2 years ago. The reason was because only now are they in the black therefore I quickly cut off ties! I still have a few investments from 2 years back which are still in the red despite dividends so it is frustrating and also shows that I definitely didn't buy at the right time. One of them was CDL which showed a spectacular run which I've no idea why and don't care why as it has been two long years with no dividends I think. However despite all the dividends, I'm still just barely breaking even for Suntec REIT which I also intend to sell off if only it would go up a bit more!   I guess the question should be why didn't I add to these stocks during those two years as it went lower or even as it was recovering. I was preoccupied with trading and stopped investing although I do monitor the price levels of existing investments. All available funds went into trading and investment took a backseat although re
Read more